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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/31 10:38

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher Ahead of USDA Report

   Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
13 to 16 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday Friday; soybean futures are 
13 to 16 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher. The U.S. stock 
market is working higher with the S&P up 30 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 30 
points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with crude 
up .20 and natural gas up .08 cents. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals 
have turned mixed with gold off 5.50.


   Corn futures are 3 to 5 cents higher at midday with spreads holding with 
firmer action as we head toward the report. Looking to the report, the average 
acre guess is 90.88 million acres of corn, with stocks at 7.470 billion bushels 
(bb) versus 89.4 million acres and 7.758 bb in stock last year. Ethanol margins 
will need more help from unleaded to boost blender action with unleaded staying 
rangebound. Basis has continued to generally drift back higher. The daily 
export wire was quiet for the first time this week. The second crop in Brazil 
is heading toward the better part of the growing season with trade watching 
forecasts into April for development with some concerns on the horizon as we 
get into April. On the May chart we are solidly above the 20-day moving 
average, which is now support at $6.33, and resistance is at the Upper 
Bollinger Band at $6.57, which we are just below pre-report.


   Soybean futures are 13 to 16 cents higher at midday with broad buying 
developing in pre-report action. Meal is $1.00 to $2.00 higher and oil is 120 
to 130 points higher. For the report, the trade is looking for 88.242 million 
acres and 1.742 bb of stocks versus 90.955 million acres and 1.931 bb last 
year. Basis has generally remained solid in the short term with the market 
still showing a substantial inverse, albeit just off the highs. May chart 
support is now at the lower Bollinger Band at $14.23, which we pushed back 
above Monday, with further support at the $14.05 fresh low scored Friday, while 
we have pushed above the 20-day moving average at $14.80 at midday.


   Wheat futures are 1 to 8 cents higher with trade settling into the middle of 
the recent range in quiet pre-report action with KC leading so far. On the 
report, trade is looking for all wheat acres at 48.852 million and stocks at 
934 million bushels (mb) versus 47.351 million acres and 1.025 bb last year. 
Weather will continue to support KC action with the western Plains to continue 
to struggle with moisture to the east, while early spring wheat progress will 
be limited with cold and snow delaying the start of the season. The dollar 
remains toward the lower end of the range even with strength this morning, 
while Matif wheat is weaker and weighing on Chicago action again. Little other 
change is noted on the world scene for now as India presses into harvest and 
other Northern Hemisphere weather issues are limited with continental Europe 
generally in good shape. On the KC May Chart the 20-day moving average is 
support at $8.27 with the fresh high scored in Thursday's trade at $8.96 
becoming resistance for now.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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