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DTN Midday Grain Comments     01/19 10:58

   Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures Higher at Midday

   Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures 
are 21 to 23 cents higher; wheat futures are 20 to 25 cents higher. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow off 40 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 20 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
mostly higher with crude up 1.75. Livestock trade is higher. Precious metals 
are firmer with gold up 28.00.


   Corn futures are 8 to 9 cents higher at midday with trade trying to 
consolidate back over $6.00 nearby with spillover support from wheat and 
soybeans and firmer spread trade. Ethanol margins will continue to be squeezed 
by tepid short-term demand with production expected to slide further as demand 
looks to remain soft in the short term with the weekly report delayed until 
Friday. Basis should remain rangebound to slightly weaker in the short term 
with weather likely to slow short-term movement. Trade will continue watching 
South American weather as we head towards second-crop planting and development. 
The daily export wire has been quiet this week. On the March contract, we have 
support at the 20-day moving average at $6.01; the upper Bollinger band at 
$6.13 is further resistance.


   Soybean futures are 21 to 23 cents higher at midday with trade snapping back 
to the middle of the recent range after rebounding from early selling Tuesday 
as trade continues to weigh rains and forecasts for the dry areas of South 
America along with broad spillover commodity support. Meal is $7.50 to $8.50 
higher and oil is 130 to 140 points higher. Basis remains mostly flat in the 
short term. Crush margins remain solid with future renewable diesel demand 
likely to keep good support under oil going forward. The daily export wire was 
quiet Wednesday. Early harvest in under way in South America, likely to further 
crimp U.S. export competitiveness in February. On the March soybean chart, we 
have resistance at the fresh high of $14.15, with trade back above the 20-day 
moving average at $13.68 overnight with the lower Bollinger Band well below the 
current action at $13.20.


   Wheat trade is 20 to 25 cents higher at midday with oversold conditions and 
political worries helping push trade back off the lower end of the range with 
action heading back towards the $8.00 area nearby. The dollar is giving back a 
bit of the rebound from Tuesday. Plains weather looks drier with a little snow 
cover out of the last system, while temps continue to fluctuate, keeping stress 
intact with other Northern Hemisphere weather concerns fading for the moment 
while political fears ramp up again. Spring wheat is firmer vs. Chicago, moving 
the premium to $1.42 on the March, with KC at a 5-cent premium in lightly 
firmer action as well. KC March chart support is the lower Bollinger band at 
$7.36 with the 20-day moving average at $8.00, just above the market.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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